DISK HARD DRIVE CAPACITY

12/16/2002

Hard Drive Capacity: The following are projected capacity for mass market (MFM then IDE) hard drives for PCs. An attempt has been made to limit it to devices that could actually be ordered and purchased.

The projections made here assume simple exponential growth of capacity. The method used was to do a least squares fit on the logarithm of disk size. For the most part the maximum capacity used in the fit was the largest IDE drive advertised in the December edition of PC Magazine or Computer Shopper.

YearActualProjected
1983 5mb 16mb
1986 190mb 59mb
1988 380mb 139mb
1993 540mb 1200mb
1994 1270mb 1846mb
1995 2160mb 2841mb
1996 3840mb 4372mb
1997 6450mb 6728mb
1998 19Gb 10Gb
1999 16Gb
2000 25Gb
2001 38Gb
2002 58Gb
2003 89Gb
2004 137Gb
2005 212Gb
2006 326Gb
2007 501Gb
2008 771Gb
2009 1.2Tb
2010 1.8Tb
2011 2.8TB
2012 4.3TB

Note: I have been unable to determine the date of original publication -- some time in 1999 apparently

Return To Index Copyright 1994-2002 by Donald Kenney.