## DISK HARD DRIVE CAPACITY

### 12/16/2002

Hard Drive Capacity: The following are projected capacity for mass market (MFM then IDE) hard drives for PCs. An attempt has been made to limit it to devices that could actually be ordered and purchased.
The projections made here assume simple exponential growth of capacity. The method used was to do a least squares fit on the logarithm of disk size. For the most part the maximum capacity used in the fit was the largest IDE drive advertised in the December edition of PC Magazine or Computer Shopper.

- Estimated Growth Rate = 53.9% per year
- One Sigma error roughly 100%. i.e. for years where actual values are known, 66% of the estimated vales are greater than half the actual value and less than twice the actual.

Year | Actual | Projected |

1983 | 5mb | 16mb |

1986 | 190mb | 59mb |

1988 | 380mb | 139mb |

1993 | 540mb | 1200mb |

1994 | 1270mb | 1846mb |

1995 | 2160mb | 2841mb |

1996 | 3840mb | 4372mb |

1997 | 6450mb | 6728mb |

1998 | 19Gb | 10Gb |

1999 | | 16Gb |

2000 | | 25Gb |

2001 | | 38Gb |

2002 | | 58Gb |

2003 | | 89Gb |

2004 | | 137Gb |

2005 | | 212Gb |

2006 | | 326Gb |

2007 | | 501Gb |

2008 | | 771Gb |

2009 | | 1.2Tb |

2010 | | 1.8Tb |

2011 | | 2.8TB |

2012 | | 4.3TB |

Note: I have been unable to determine the date of original publication -- some time in 1999 apparently

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Copyright 1994-2002 by Donald Kenney.