DISK HARD DRIVE CAPACITY

12/16/2008

Hard Drive Capacity: The following are projected capacity for mass market (MFM then IDE) hard drives for PCs. An attempt has been made to limit it to devices that could actually be ordered and purchased.

The projections made here assume simple exponential growth of capacity. The method used was to do a least squares fit on the logarithm of disk size. For the most part the maximum capacity used in the fit was the largest IDE drive advertised in the December edition of PC Magazine or Computer Shopper.

Estimated Growth Rate = 53.9% per year
One Sigma error roughly 100%. i.e. for years where actual values are known, 66% of the estimated vales are greater than half the actual value and less than twice the actual.

Year Actual Projected

1983 5mb 16mb

1986 190mb 59mb

1988 380mb 139mb

1993 540mb 1200mb

1994 1270mb 1846mb

1995 2160mb 2841mb

1996 3840mb 4372mb

1997 6450mb 6728mb

1998 19Gb 10Gb

1999 16Gb

2000 25Gb

2001 38Gb

2008 58Gb

2003 89Gb

2004 137Gb

2005 212Gb

2006 326Gb

2007 501Gb

2008 771Gb

2009 1.2Tb

2010 1.8Tb

2011 2.8TB

2012 4.3TB

Year	Actual	Projected
1983	5mb	16mb
1986	190mb	59mb
1988	380mb	139mb
1993	540mb	1200mb
1994	1270mb	1846mb
1995	2160mb	2841mb
1996	3840mb	4372mb
1997	6450mb	6728mb
1998	19Gb	10Gb
1999		16Gb
2000		25Gb
2001		38Gb
2008		58Gb
2003		89Gb
2004		137Gb
2005		212Gb
2006		326Gb
2007		501Gb
2008		771Gb
2009		1.2Tb
2010		1.8Tb
2011		2.8TB
2012		4.3TB

Note: I have been unable to determine the date of original publication -- some time in 1999 apparently